低碳经济下洛阳市生态城市规划研究

"十三五"时期是推动城市向协调、开放、绿色、环保发展的新时期,这对重工业发达的洛阳来说是一个承前启后的时期.近些年来,洛阳市在城市化进程中所产生的城市生态环境问题日益突出.为了适应新时期的发展,文章对当前洛阳市生态城市规划与已有城市规划体系间如何实现有机融合做出思考,指出洛阳市城市规划必须走低碳经济之路,强调在城乡规划,绿色公共交通网络建立,污水管道规划,绿地规划等四个方面树立生态环境标准从而有效实现洛阳市生态城市规划.     

乌鲁木齐市"十二五"期间生物丰度指数变化研究

研究借助计算机监督分类手段,依照《生态环境状况评价技术规范HJ 192-2015》研究了乌鲁木齐市"十二五"期间生物丰度指数(biological richness index,BRI)变化情况.结果表明,乌鲁木齐市"十二五"末建设用地、林地、草地较初期增加16.61%、6.90%、0.57%,未利用地、耕地、水域则减少1.81%、3.31%、5.24%.整体BRI加权值为20.48,较初期下降1.68,其中乌鲁木齐县最高,为27.03,新市区为最低的14.06,总体生物丰度状况略微变差.该研究可为乌鲁木齐市生态环境建设提供依据.     

The National Falls Free™ Initiative, working collaboratively to affect change

Introduction

Since 2004 the National Council on Aging (NCOA) has been working in collaboration with a growing number of national, state, and local organizations through the Falls Free^© Initiative to address the growing public health issue of falls and fall-related injuries among older adults. Through collaborative leadership, evidence-based interventions, practical lifestyle adjustments, and community partnerships we are working to reduce the number of older adult falls.

Impact on industry

The many activities of the national and state coalitions have brought recognition to the issue of fall prevention, education, and training to providers and greater investment in programs and services resulting in tremendous momentum and community activism. While we have yet to realize an impact on rates of falls, this strategic investment in building the infrastructure needed to affect change is the first step toward reducing the growing number of falls among older adults.     

锦州市“十二五”期间主要大气污染物减排潜力分析

通过对锦州市"十一五"减排成果及问题的分析,围绕"十二五"减排目标,从电力行业脱硫设施稳定运行、推进低氮燃烧技术、加快钢铁企业烧结机脱硫,取缔供暖行业燃煤小锅炉,加快用车淘汰力度及规范油品供应等方面对锦州市"十二五"期间减排潜力进行了调查和分析。     

Improving the effectiveness of planning EIA (PEIA) in China: Integrating planning and assessment during the preparation of Shenzhen's Master Urban Plan

The enactment and implementation of the 2003 EIA Law in China institutionalised the role of plan environmental impact assessment (PEIA). While the philosophy, methodology and mechanisms of PEIA have gradually permeated through the various levels of government with a positive effect on the process and outcome of urban planning, only a few cities in China have so far carried out PEIA as a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)-type procedure. One such case is the southern city of Shenzhen. During the past three decades, Shenzhen has grown from a small town to a large and booming city as China has successfully and rapidly developed its economy by adopting the “reform and open door” policy. In response to the challenges arising from the generally divergent processes of rapid urbanisation, economic transformation and environment protection, Shenzhen has incrementally adopted the SEA concept in developing the city's Master Urban Plan. As such, this paper reviews the effectiveness of PEIA in three ways:

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  as a tool and process for achieving more sustainable and strategic planning;

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  to determine the level of integration of SEA within the planning system; and,

• • 

  its effectiveness vis-à-vis implementation.

The implementation of PEIA within Shenzhen's Master Urban Plan offers important insights into the emergence of innovative practices in undertaking PEIA as well as theoretical contributions to the field, especially in exploring the relationship between PEIA and SEA and highlighting the central role of local governing institutions in SEA development.     

Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate

For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.     

“大气十条”政策的节能降碳效果评估与创新中介效应

为评估《大气污染防治行动计划》(“大气十条”政策)的节能降碳效果与作用机制,在测度2003～2017年281个地级和以上城市单位地区生产总值能耗和CO₂排放量的基础上,运用双重差分模型探究了“大气十条”政策对节能降碳的影响、创新中介效应和城市异质性.结果表明：(1)“大气十条”政策促进全样本城市能耗强度显著下降17.60%,碳排放强度显著下降19.99%,在通过平行趋势检验、克服内生性和安慰剂、动态时间窗和反事实、三重差分和PSM-DID估计等一系列稳健性检验基础上,上述结论依然成立.(2)机制分析表明,“大气十条”政策通过绿色发明型专利为载体的直接创新中介效应实现节能降碳效果,创新引致的产业结构升级效应的间接创新中介效应实现节能效果.(3)异质性分析表明,“大气十条”政策对煤炭消费大省的节能降碳幅度分别大于非煤炭消费大省0.86%和3.25%;对老工业基地城市的降碳幅度大于非老工业基地36.43%,但节能效果小于非老工业基地8.93%;对非资源型城市的节能降碳幅度分别大于资源型城市31.30%和74.95%.(4)结果显示,须强化煤炭消费大省、老工业基地城市和资...     

加大行政奖惩力度是中国环境绩效改善的主要原因吗?

"十一五"、"十二五"规划时期,中国单位GDP能耗、SO_2排放总量、COD排放总量等节能减排指标均实现了国家规划目标,这与"十五"计划三项指标均未完成形成鲜明对比。现有研究对此的解释存在宏观和微观层面上的不一致。其重要原因在于现有研究将环境绩效改善的原因完全归于行政奖惩所体现的正式制度的作用,而忽视了非正式制度对节能减排绩效的积极影响。本文建构了以包含正式激励和非正式激励的二元委托代理激励模型为基础的分析框架,利用基于717名不同级别官员的问卷数据,采用结构方程方法对上述模型进行了检验。实证结果表明,与约束性指标相关的正式制度中规定的11项奖惩措施所产生的激励对官员的环境治理行为力度并没有显著影响,而体现为顺应中央政府导向和上级领导注意力所代表的非正式制度激励对官员环境治理行为力度产生了显著影响。非正式制度激励对环境治理行为力度的影响存在两条路径。在第一条路径中,官员压力是中介变量,即非正式制度产生对官员压力的影响,官员压力又进一步影响官员环境治理行为。在这一路径中,晋升偏好、服从偏好为正向调节变量,正式奖惩的执行严格程度为负向调节变量。这一路径表明,官员晋升偏好越强、正式奖惩执行严格程度越弱,非正式制度激励对地方官员压力的影响越大;官员服从上级偏好程度越强,官员压力对环境治理行为力度的影响越大。在第二条路径中,非正式制度激励被认为直接影响环境治理行为力度,服务偏好是正向调节变量。这一路径表明,地方官员为人民服务的偏好越强,非正式激励对环境治理行为的影响越大。本文的研究发现调和了环境政策执行领域的理论冲突,为深化对中国"压力型"体制的理解提供实证证据。     

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatial Models for Multispecies Conservation Planning and Monitoring

Abstract: Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence–absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site‐level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence–absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad‐scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km² hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies conservation planning.     

太原市“十四五”规划大气污染防治政策的CO2协同效益评估

为量化评估太原市“十四五”大气污染防治政策的减污降碳协同效益,使用京津冀温室气体-空气污染相互作用与协同模型（GAINS-JJJ）,模拟评估13项大气污染防治措施的减排潜力,CO₂的协同减排效益.2025年政策情景下一次PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂、NO_x、VOCs和NH₃分别减排1.8（5%,相对于基准情景减排比例,下同）、2.5（2%）、3.7（16%）、20.0（27%）、13.6（15%）和0.0 kt（0%）,CO₂减排9.0 Mt（13%）,CH₄排放增加203.3 kt（相对于基准情景增加25%）.SO₂、NO_x与VOCs减排主要发生在电力、工业燃烧与溶剂使用部门,CO₂减排主要发生在工业燃烧部门,CH₄排放量增加是由于煤矿开采活动水平升高.限制“双高”行业的能源消耗,严禁新增产能以及可再生能源发电比例提升措施的CO₂协同减排效益最高.VOCs具有优异协同减碳效益.建议太原市进一步推进终端电气化政策,同时需加大提升电力行业清洁能源比重和可再生能源发电的消纳能力.